2013 MLBDirt Mock Draft Results

On January 27, 2013, I had the pleasure of hosting and taking part in the first annual MLBDirt.com Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft. First things first, I want to thank Jonathan Mitchell, William Tasker, Daniel Marino, Charlie Nehl, Mike Schwartze, Wayne Bretsky, Ray Guilfoyle, Mike Hilbig, Mark Kaplan, Jeff Furtah, and Alex Kantecki for taking part in the draft. We had a mix of MLBDirt.com writers and six well respected Fantasy Baseball writers. All of these men are recommended follows on Twitter and I will give you their contact information at the end of the article. One thing that makes Fantasy Baseball fun is the different opinions you can get. These guys all have great insight and baseball knowledge.

Without any further adieu, here is the 2013 MLBDirt Mock Draft Results. Please feel free to comment and engage in discussion!

ROUND 1

Round 1 Best Value Pick: Matt Kemp, 1.11

Matt Kemp’s 2012 was marred by injury, but he still hit over .300. His counting statistics were way down, but his track record speaks for itself. Unless there is a huge concern over injury with Kemp, he shouldn’t fall to number 11 overall. That’s a steal!

ROUND 2

Round 2 Best Value Pick: Prince Fielder, 2.2

Prince Fielder’s consistency and durability warrant first round consideration. Alex Kantecki happened to be the owner that took both Kemp and Fielder and was able to snag both of them in great spots.

ROUND 3

Round 3 Best Value Picks: David Wright and Adrian Beltre

Both David Wright and Adrian Beltre were drafted in excellent positions. Beltre has a .310 average and 68 homers over two seasons with the Rangers. David Wright is a consistent AVG/OBP guy that should hit 20 homers and steal 15-20 bags with upside for more.

ROUND 4

Round 4 Best Value Pick: Ian Kinsler

At such a scarce position, I was surprised to see Ian Kinsler fall to number 48 overall. This is excellent value for a guy with 30/30 upside. Great pick.

ROUND 5

Round 5 Best Value Pick: Ryan Zimmerman

He was injured throughout most of his 2012 campaign, but Ryan Zimmerman toughed through it and managed to put up a .282/.346/.478 triple slash with 25 homers and 90 RBIs. I’ll take that from a Third Baseman in the 5th round every single day.

ROUND 6

Round 6 Best Value Pick: R.A. Dickey

The reigning NL Cy Young winner went at number 72 overall. I know R.A. Dickey will be pitching for Toronto in 2013, but at this spot, he’s worth the gamble and the value he’s going to bring.

ROUND 7

Round 7 Best Value Pick: Chase Headley

Chase Headley was my pick in the 7th round and I think he fell further than he will in most drafts in 2013. He hit 31 homers last year, but I’ll be the first to admit that he likely won’t do that again. He should finish in the 22-25 range with 15-20 steals. Very solid for the 7th round.

ROUND 8

Round 8 Best Value Pick: Mark Teixeira

Mark Teixeira will never be a .300 hitter again, but he’s going to be a 30 home run guy again and he’s going to be that guy in 2013. He missed time last season due to injury, yet he was still productive. If he stays healthy this year, his power and run producing numbers will be excellent.

ROUND 9

Round 9 Best Value Pick: Ray Guilfoyle from http://www.faketeams.com came back with another stellar value pick and snagged Jimmy Rollins in the 9th round. Since 2001, Rollins has stolen LESS than 30 bases only twice. Add in the 15 homers he’ll hit and you have a guy that should have gone at least two round prior.

ROUND 10

Round 10 Best Value Pick: Pablo Sandoval

Luckily for fantasy owners, Pablo Sandoval doesn’t have any more hamate bones to break. What owners can’t control though is Sandoval’s weight and conditioning. If his weight is under control and he doesn’t have hamstring issues, Sandoval is a .315 hitter that will hit 25 dingers. I’m in the camp that believes Kung Fu Panda will rebound and have a nice season in 2013.

ROUND 11

Round 11 Best Value Pick: Josh Willingham

Coming off of a season where he hit 35 home runs, the 11th round is a steal to get a player like Josh Willingham. He’s had durability issues in the past, but he’s always been a solid power guy with very good on-base skills. Naturally, his production depends on health and I think he’ll stay healthy enough to hit 25-30 homers in 2013.

ROUND 12

Round 12 Best Value Pick: Derek Jeter

Even though he’ll be returning from a broken ankle, Derek Jeter makes for a nice pick at number 140 overall. He’s still a very good hitter and will chip in with double digit homers and steals. He isn’t what he once was, but still he’s a very valuable player.

ROUND 13

Round 13 Best Value Pick: C.J. Wilson

C.J. Wilson has a very solid first half in 2012 going 9-5 with a 2.43 ERA. He fell on his face in the second half, but it has come to light that he had bone spurs in his pitching elbow. I’m willing to give Wilson a mulligan this year and I expect good things out of him now that his elbow is healthy.

ROUND 14

Round 14 Best Value Pick: Chris Davis

It’s hard to come across a guy that will hit a 30 home runs this late, but Chris Davis fits that bill. Finally in a full time role, Davis put 33 balls over the fence in 2012. He’s always had excellent power, it was just a case of him being able to execute in the Major Leagues. A repeat of last season would provide fantastic value out of the 14th round.

ROUND 15

Round 15 Best Value Pick: Jake Peavy

It’s hard to trust Jake Peavy considering his health history, but in the 15th round, you really can’t go wrong. Peavy was healthy last year and it lead to his best numbers since 2007. Health is his biggest issue, but if he can keep that in check, he’ll have another solid season.

ROUND 16

Round 16 Best Value Pick: Andre Ethier

Andre Ethier certainly isn’t flashy, but he has good pop, drives in runs, and gets on base. Some say he is overrated, some say he is underrated, but in the 16th round, he’s a great value pick regardless. The Dodgers have a great lineup this year and Ethier should have a lot of opportunities to drive in plenty of runs.

ROUND 17

Round 17 Best Value Pick: Mariano Rivera

This could be Mariano Rivera’s last hurrah. Count me in as someone that thinks he is going to go out on a high note. I was extremely surprised to see “Mo” fall this far, but I suppose a torn ACL will do that to a player, even a grisly veteran like Rivera. His WHIP will be low and the Saves will be plenty. This was a great pick at number 194 overall.

ROUND 18

Round 18 Best Value Pick: Greg Holland

Now that he is immersed in the Closer’s role for Kansas City, Greg Holland is a great value pick at number 216 overall. He has the chance to be a top 10 Closer this season, but that will likely hinge on him bringing down his 4.6 BB/9 ratio from 2012. This was Jonathan Mitchell’s first Closer and he snagged a good one this late.

ROUND 19

Round 19 Best Value Pick: Lorenzo Cain

I chose Cain as the best value pick in Round 19 because of his upside. He’s always had great numbers in the minors, but they haven’t translated into success at the major league level yet. He battled injuries last season when many chose him to be a sleeper candidate. This could be the breakout year and a pick this late is well worth the gamble.

ROUND 20

Round 20 Best Value Pick: Justin Morneau

A lot of Justin Morneau’s chances of being productive depend greatly on his health. He managed to play in 134 games last year, but wasn’t exactly the same player he was 2006-2009. At this point in the draft, drafting Morneau’s potential for a legitimate bounce back season is well worth it. I doubt he’ll hit 30 home runs, but 25 definitely isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

ROUND 21

Round 21 Best Value Pick: Adam Dunn

As long as you can stomach the awful batting average, Adam Dunn provides great value here. You can’t find a guy that’s going to hit 40 home runs anytime after the 5th round except for Adam Dunn. It’s a lot easier to pick up steals on the waiver wire than it is to find home runs. This was a great pick by Jeff Furtah at number 242 overall.

ROUND 22

Round 22 Best Value Pick: Marco Estrada

I am a huge fan of Marco Estrada for 2013. He had a K/9 of 9.3 and a BB/9 of 1.9 in just over 138 innings pitched last year. He could be a very solid number three starter and grabbing him in the 22nd round is a steal. This was a very nice pick by Alex.

ROUND 23

Round 23 Best Value Pick: Bruce Rondon

Bruce Rondon will likely enter 2013 as the Closer for the Detroit Tigers. He’s a fireballer that throws triple digit fastballs. He has the chance to make an immediate impact and with the 272 pick his upside alone warrants this as a great value pick.

ROUND 24

Round 24 Best Value Pick: A.J. Pierzynski

A.J. Pierzynski hit a career high 27 home runs in 2012 and now he’s moved to another “hitter’s haven” in Arlington, Texas. He probably won’t match his home run total again, but he is a good bet for 20 and that’s fantastic production out the Catcher’s spot at pick number 283 overall.

Team Summaries/Guest Blurbs

David Kerr

I was hoping that Robinson Cano would fall to me at number six overall and he did, but I was absolutely thrilled when Giancarlo Stanton was available with the 19th overall pick. Cano is as sure as they come and Stanton is going to put up huge power numbers in 2013. I expect Hanley Ramirez to have a solid campaign this year and was able to shore up my middle infield in the first three rounds. Those are the weakest positions in Fantasy Baseball this year, so  I was happy to grab two players that provide fantastic production up the middle. After taking Jacoby Ellsbury in the 4th, I went back up the middle and snagged Ben Zobrist as my Middle Infielder. I feel as though I have the strong middle infield in the league. I’m a huge Mat Latos fan and hadn’t yet grabbed a Starting Pitcher, so the 6th round was my time to pounce. Sadly, my overall pitching is hinging on bounce back players and a prayer. I don’t like it at all. As I stated earlier, getting Chase Headley in the 7th round was a steal. I expect Victor Martinez to come back and not miss a beat, so at pick 115 overall, he should provide great value, especially because he’s Catcher eligible. Dan Haren and Jon Lester have to pitch the opposite way they did in 2012 or I’m cooked at Starting Pitching. Chris Carpenter is already likely out for the year, so that was a wasted pick in the 18th round. Overall, my offense is very good, my pitching is weak, and I have a few high upside guys that could provide good value. In hindsight, I wish I would have stuck to my usual strategy of getting at least one ace Starting Pitcher, but I kept loading up on bats early because I was able to get them in good spots. Overall I’d rate my team a 6.5-7/10. My hitting is superb, my pitching is average at best. Not bad, but it certainly could be better.

William Tasker

Old dog? New tricks? I participated in my first ever mock draft on Sunday night with most of the MLB Dirt folks and other great people. I found it intriguing trying to build a team and looking for the best players. My strategy was starting pitching first and then players who could both hit and run. I like my team. Now, I want to play it out. Who would have ever thought I would ever say that?

Alex Kantecki

I picked second to last and grabbed Kemp at No. 11 (a no-brainer) and snagged Fielder after the turn. First base is deep, but I think there’s a big gap between the top guys and the next tier. Starters were flying off the board early, so I grabbed Cain in the 4th and Bumgarner in the 5th (which is weird, because I like Bum more than Cain this year). I planned on taking an outfielder to pair with Kemp next, but I was drawn to Kimbrel. I never (EVER) take a closer early, but I made the exception with Kimbrel. He’s special. I was happy taking Sandoval in the 10th (third base is surprisingly deep), but I think my best pick was Alcides Escobar in the 12th. Andrus went 49 picks earlier, and I think Escobar out produces Elvis this year (I can’t see Escobar not stealing 30). I waited too long to take my second outfielder and ended up with a starting four of Kemp, Beltran, Eaton (a bit of a reach in the 15th round) and Ludwick. I then went shopping in San Diego and grabbed Maybin and Quentin in the 21st and 24th, respectively. Maybin could steal 40 and Quentin could hit 30, but both are long shots. Overall, I feel I got a good mix of players. Some picks were made easy (like Pedroia in the 3rd and Carlos Santana in the 7th), while others (like the Kimbrel pick) were more about the flow of the draft. I’d definitely go into battle with these guys.

Wayne Bretsky

Thoughts on my Team

Full disclosure, I REALLY like the team I put together in this 12-team 5×5 mock draft. With the seventh pick I landed Carlos Gonzalez after Robinson Cano was scooped up one pick prior. If Cano was there, I would have snagged him.The decision to go with CarGo is mostly based on safety. Other guys considered with pick 1.6 included Joey Votto and Matt Kemp (CarGo and Kemp are virtually equal in draft stock in my opinion). In the end, the offseason surgeries for both Kemp and Votto pushed me towards CarGo, a situation that will be re-evaluated as we get to see how healthy these guys are in spring training.

Surprisingly, after five rounds I had rostered four outfielders and one starter. Typically, I don’t like to draft a starting pitcher in the first five rounds, but there was a bit of a run in Round 4 and Cliff Lee was the final member of my ‘elite tier’ so I snagged him.
The outfield dominance was not planned, but each time my pick came around I felt that the outfielders I selected were the best players available. With four starting outfield spots in this league (in addition to 2 UT spots) I have no problem rostering four outfielders that reside in my preseason top-10.

My Best Pick

Matt Holliday at 31 overall is a pick I will make in just about every draft. He doesn’t run much, but Holliday is as consistent as they come in standard leagues. It continues to confound me that he is not widely regarded as a top-10 option at the postion, despite the fact that he’s averaged an elite .308-105-28-106-13 line per 162 games since 2008. And yes, that is not including his monstrous 2007 season when he knocked 36 home runs and drove in 137 RBI while finishing second in the NL MVP voting.

The rest of my offense is comprised of a number of veteran options coming off of injuries or down years. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Asdrubal Cabrera, Ike Davis, Dan Uggla, Jayson Werth and Emilio Bonifacio are all guys who would have been off the board significantly earlier in previous seasons. By my count, however, most of the risk with the fellows is more of a perceived risk by owners looking at just their final numbers. Howard, Utley, Werth and Davis were all productive down (and healthy!) the stretch in 2012 and Bonifacio also showed dominant skills at several points last season when he was able to stay on the field.

Asdrubal probably represents one of my bigger risks on the day, but entering his age-27 season and just one year removed from  a 25 home run, 92 RBI, 17 steal season, the upside to be a top-5 shortstop was just too great to pass up at pick 103.

As for my rotation behind Cliff Lee, I very happy with Adam Wainwright in his second year removed from Tommy John surgery and also Matt Moore. Both of these pitchers came on in the second half of 2012 and each of my top-3 pitching selections I have rated as top-15 starters entering the season. Late-rounders  James McDonald, Matt Garza and Mike Fiers all represent high-upside options with potential to vault into the top-30 this season.

Finally, an important piece to my team-building strategy is evident in my bullpen. Despite not selecting a relief pitcher until Round 20, I was able to walk away from the draft with three solid closers (Tom Wilhelmsen, Huston Street, Grant Balfour) who each hold a reasonable amount of job security… well, as much job security as a closer can have in January.

Things I would do differently

I really wanted to get my hands on Allen Craig, though with when my turn came in Round 4 I had trouble putting him ahead of Cliff Lee or Yoenis Cespedes. At that point in the draft I realized I would likely be able to draft only two from this group (if that) and I decided to go with Lee first. Craig was taken before my next pick, which ended up being Cespedes.

I also had my eye on Rickie Weeks, who I view as a HUGE sleeper at second base this season, coming off of a very strong second half in 2012 (.261-51-13-34-10). He was in my cue when selected in Round 11 which was  a disappointment. Apparently, the elder Weeks is not as deep a sleeper as I had hoped.

I also waited just a bit too long on my catcher spot. I am not thrilled with Alex Avila as my primary backstop. Jonathan Lucroy is the guy I had my eye on, but was selected just a couple of spots before I was planning to take him. My fallback option, Ryan Doumit, was then picked right before me in Round 19. And that the beauty of mock drafts. I can now readjust my thinking with the late-round catchers and moving forward consider reaching just a round or two earlier to ensure I get on of these guys before the position runs dry.

Team aside from mine that I like the best

I really Like Dave Kerr’s start on offense with Cano, Stanton, Hanley, Ellsbury, but later, some of the pitching selections have me scratching my head. Jon Lester, Jeremy Hellickson and Trevor Bauer are all significantly overrated in my book.

Jonathan Mitchell’s team looks to be a pretty solid force. There is a fair amount of injury risk early (Tulo, Longo, Kinsler) but i would not be surprised at all if any or all of of those guys finished as the Number 1 player at their respective positions. I don’t love the Gallardo selection in Round 8, but a top-4 in the rotation containing Dickey, Sale, Yovani and Josh Johnson should put Jonathan near the top in strikeouts.

The Carl Crawford selection with the first pick of Round 11 is a very intriguing one. Crawford had a nightmarish stint in Beantown and enters 2013 with question about the health of his elbow. However, I find it hard to believe that this guy has forgotten how to hit (and run for that matter) and though risky, this pick could pay huge dividends.

Mike Schwartze also put together a very intriguing sqaud. He’s got elite players at the top (Braun, Bautista, King Felix) with a number of really interesting names throughout who look like they may be ready to take the leap into the elite tiers (Goldschmidt, Zimmermann, Morrow, Espinosa, Harvey, Frazier, Lucroy, Simmons). Lots of upside for this squad!

Best Pick of the draft

Interestingly, it’s not a pick but an ENTIRE ROUND that I am impressed with. I already mention Crawford and Weeks above (top-2 picks in Round 11) and they just keep getting better after that: Josh Willingham, Ian Kennedy, Mike Napoli, Ike Davis, Nelson Cruz, Wilin Rosario, Michael Morse, Joe Nathan and Tim Lincecum. I love all of these picks, plain and simple. Though some are better than others (and frankly, I wouldn’t be taking a closer here), I wouldn’t mind having any one of these guys on my team at this value!

Worst reach of the draft

Alex Gordon- Round 6 Pick 11 (71 overall)

It’s not that I hate Alex Gordon as a baseball player. In fact, in a recent episode of the Box Score Baseball Podcast that I co-host with Michael Pichan, I was singing the praises of Alex Gordon as an improving baseball player. As a fantasy asset, however, we have seen Gordon’s best days. Gordon’s .294 average in 2012 was nice and his league-leading 51 doubles also shows that he’s still a valuable contributor at the plate but the fantasy stats just aren’t there. His home-run total dropped by 39% from 2011 to 2012 as his speed numbers also took a significant tumble. It’s not as though Gordon wasn’t getting on base either–the .368 OBP was just a slight drop-off from the previous season–he just wasn’t running as much: 25 steal attempts in 2011 and just 15 in 2012.

Gordon was picked just ahead of 2012′s No. 1 overall pitcher, R.A. Dickey,  and also ahed of other outfielder including Desmond Jennings, Austin Hackson, Hunter Pence, Josh Reddick, and Angel Pagan to name a few. I’d take each of those players over Alex Gordon and with his modest power/speed production, I’d even prefer a guy like Michael Saunders–who went undrafted in this league–over Gordon, who was selected at least 10 rounds too early in this mock.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this review of out inaugural MLBDirt.com Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft. You can bet that we will do it again next year. Thanks for reading!

You can visit David Kerr’s personal Fantasy Baseball blog at http://askrotobaseball.wordpress.com. Follow him on Twitter @askROTObaseball where he will answer your question’s daily!